Recent forecasts from research firm IDC indicate significant changes in the global smartphone market by 2026. The ongoing RAM crisis is projected to have a more severe impact than previously anticipated, leading to a forecasted decline in smartphone shipments.
Expected Decline in Smartphone Shipments
IDC estimates that global smartphone shipments will decrease by as much as 16.7% this year, a sharper decline than the 13.9% drop predicted in May. This downturn is largely attributed to supply chain disruptions affecting essential components.
Rising Component Costs Impacting Prices
One of the main drivers of this situation is the skyrocketing prices of NAND and RAM components, which have surged over 300% year-over-year. Chip manufacturers are reallocating production capacity to meet the high demand from AI data centers, which offer better profit margins than consumer electronics.
Average Smartphone Prices on the Rise
As smartphone vendors struggle to absorb these rising costs, the average selling price of smartphones has surged by 27.61% to reach $581. This upward trend in prices is expected to continue into 2027, marking a significant shift in the market dynamics.
Impact on Android Vendors and Consumer Behavior
Android smartphone vendors are feeling the brunt of this crisis, with projected shipments expected to decline by 24.3% in 2026. This decrease is particularly pronounced in the entry-level segment, where shipments of phones priced below $100 have plummeted nearly 60% in the second quarter of 2026.
In response to these challenges, Android manufacturers focusing on low-end devices are cutting back on these models and shifting their product offerings towards higher-end devices. Consumer purchasing habits are also evolving, with flagship smartphones increasingly perceived as better alternatives to mid-range devices as their prices rise.
Interestingly, while most smartphone segments are forecasted to decline in 2026, the foldable smartphone category is expected to grow by 12.6%. This growth is driven by strong sales of the Galaxy Z Fold 8 and the anticipated release of a foldable iPhone.
The landscape of the smartphone market is changing rapidly, with affordability becoming a thing of the past. As vendors adapt to these new realities, the competition will likely intensify, favoring those with the scale and bargaining power to navigate these challenging conditions.
Source: https://inet.detik.com/consumer/d-8637772/kenaikan-harga-permanen-era-hp-android-murah-diramal-berakhir
